Climate change

The photos of the flash flood in Nepal are horrifying. Apparently, a glacier in the mountains broke loose due to a weakness caused by excessive heat, which triggered the flash flood that wiped out numerous towns and villages along the river and killed a lot of people, many of them tourists. The death toll is likely to rise because so many people are still missing. 

This is the latest tragedy in the year filled with effects of climate change. 

 

Europe has had its share of fires and heat domes. So has been the case with USA and Canada. Our heat dome keeps on going and there is a super El Niño brewing off coast in the Pacific. It is an unprecedented rise in water temperature, that will bring in heavy rain in form of atmospheric river, in an area such as ours which is not prepared for the onslaught. Meanwhile my family members in India complain about heavy rains, and heat, the likes of which have not been seen. 

 

Yet, there are those who deny climate change. 

 

Katherine Hayhoe, a climate scientist and one of the guests in a recent Fareed Zakaria’s program, outlined five arguments that people make against climate change:

 

·      It is not real

·      It is not caused by humans

·      It is not so bad

·      It cannot be fixed

·      It is too late to fix

 

At this stage, I can bring scientific arguments to show that each one of this is incorrect. However, I am also convinced that these arguments will not satisfy some of the people, who will bring their own charts and “scientific” proof from “experts” on “reliable” sources such as YouTube or Instagram. Of course, once you have made up your mind, you will always find evidence to support your stand and ignore all the rest. It is called confirmation bias.

 

Nevertheless, here are some qualitative thoughts on these points:

 

It is not real: OK, how many lives must be lost before you are convinced that it is real? 

 

It is not caused by humans: It is true that there are other causes for climate change. 

 

One is solar activities. However, its effects are small compared to what we have been witnessing. The motion of earth (its eccentricity of rotation, direction of axis of rotation, wobble) can also cause changes in earth’s temperature (and was a contributing factor for causing past ice ages), However, such change happens over thousands of years, not as fast as what is going on. 

 

Earth’s albedo (reflectivity) has cause dramatic cooling of earth’s surface when a major volcanic eruption takes place. There has been none recently, and the temperature is moving in the wrong direction. Melting of ice sheets (Antarctica, Arctic, Greenland) also reduce reflectivity. However, they seem to reinforce global warming or cooling, not causing them.

 

So, increasing Carbon Dioxide in atmosphere, causing Greenhouse effect, is the culprit for climate change. Humans have caused it by burning of fossil fuel and cutting down forests (which absorb Carbon Dioxide). 

 

It is not so bad: Tell that to people suffering from it now and this is just the beginning. 

 

It cannot be fixed: To reverse this is going to take a long time now that we have allowed it to deteriorate so much. However, I cannot imagine that taking actions (such as reducing pollution, increasing greenery) will have no effect.

 

It is too late to fix: For the people who have lost their lives, yes, it is. However, we have a huge population, and we need to save the rest.

 

Our track record has not been great thus far. A country like USA, which has the capacity to do much on climate change pulled out of an international treaty to do something about it (Pasis Accord) many years ago. Our leader, and many of his cohorts, think that the whole climate change thing is a hoax.  Now, we pay for it.

 

In any case, the train has left the station. We now must manage the damage and figure out what can we do to survive. Remember, climate change is not just global warming, but it also includes secondary effects of such warming, for example rising sea levels, making it more acidic, changing ocean currents, melting ice, and changing the pattern of rain, snow and wind. Occasionally, these secondary effects may cool down parts of earth and may be increase snow fall. That does not mean that the earth overall is not getting warmer.  

 

As the climate change becomes worse, we may need to start living underground, with gardens on the top, as some people suggest. Alternate energy will power our industries, home and transportation. There will be major dislocation of people from danger zones (such as the ones that are downstream of a major glacier) or living close to the seashore. 

 

Then we get into the realm of science fiction, at least for the moment. Over the long periods, maybe there will be a push to find an alternate home if our planet earth becomes inhabitable. However, the cost for space transportation and habitation must reduce significantly to make any meaningful resettlement of people at large. One can also argue that climate change will make life of Carbon-based humans (as well as other living things) much more difficult while that of a Silicon based “life”, such as robots powered by AI will be unaffected. How will that play out? What is in store for us?