Climate change

The photos of the flash flood in Nepal are horrifying. Apparently, a glacier in the mountains broke loose due to a weakness caused by excessive heat, which triggered the flash flood that wiped out numerous towns and villages along the river and killed a lot of people, many of them tourists. The death toll is likely to rise because so many people are still missing. 

This is the latest tragedy in the year filled with effects of climate change. 

 

Europe has had its share of fires and heat domes. So has been the case with USA and Canada. Our heat dome keeps on going and there is a super El Niño brewing off coast in the Pacific. It is an unprecedented rise in water temperature, that will bring in heavy rain in form of atmospheric river, in an area such as ours which is not prepared for the onslaught. Meanwhile my family members in India complain about heavy rains, and heat, the likes of which have not been seen. 

 

Yet, there are those who deny climate change. 

 

Katherine Hayhoe, a climate scientist and one of the guests in a recent Fareed Zakaria’s program, outlined five arguments that people make against climate change:

 

·      It is not real

·      It is not caused by humans

·      It is not so bad

·      It cannot be fixed

·      It is too late to fix

 

At this stage, I can bring scientific arguments to show that each one of this is incorrect. However, I am also convinced that these arguments will not satisfy some of the people, who will bring their own charts and “scientific” proof from “experts” on “reliable” sources such as YouTube or Instagram. Of course, once you have made up your mind, you will always find evidence to support your stand and ignore all the rest. It is called confirmation bias.

 

Nevertheless, here are some qualitative thoughts on these points:

 

It is not real: OK, how many lives must be lost before you are convinced that it is real? 

 

It is not caused by humans: It is true that there are other causes for climate change. 

 

One is solar activities. However, its effects are small compared to what we have been witnessing. The motion of earth (its eccentricity of rotation, direction of axis of rotation, wobble) can also cause changes in earth’s temperature (and was a contributing factor for causing past ice ages), However, such change happens over thousands of years, not as fast as what is going on. 

 

Earth’s albedo (reflectivity) has cause dramatic cooling of earth’s surface when a major volcanic eruption takes place. There has been none recently, and the temperature is moving in the wrong direction. Melting of ice sheets (Antarctica, Arctic, Greenland) also reduce reflectivity. However, they seem to reinforce global warming or cooling, not causing them.

 

So, increasing Carbon Dioxide in atmosphere, causing Greenhouse effect, is the culprit for climate change. Humans have caused it by burning of fossil fuel and cutting down forests (which absorb Carbon Dioxide). 

 

It is not so bad: Tell that to people suffering from it now and this is just the beginning. 

 

It cannot be fixed: To reverse this is going to take a long time now that we have allowed it to deteriorate so much. However, I cannot imagine that taking actions (such as reducing pollution, increasing greenery) will have no effect.

 

It is too late to fix: For the people who have lost their lives, yes, it is. However, we have a huge population, and we need to save the rest.

 

Our track record has not been great thus far. A country like USA, which has the capacity to do much on climate change pulled out of an international treaty to do something about it (Pasis Accord) many years ago. Our leader, and many of his cohorts, think that the whole climate change thing is a hoax.  Now, we pay for it.

 

In any case, the train has left the station. We now must manage the damage and figure out what can we do to survive. Remember, climate change is not just global warming, but it also includes secondary effects of such warming, for example rising sea levels, making it more acidic, changing ocean currents, melting ice, and changing the pattern of rain, snow and wind. Occasionally, these secondary effects may cool down parts of earth and may be increase snow fall. That does not mean that the earth overall is not getting warmer.  

 

As the climate change becomes worse, we may need to start living underground, with gardens on the top, as some people suggest. Alternate energy will power our industries, home and transportation. There will be major dislocation of people from danger zones (such as the ones that are downstream of a major glacier) or living close to the seashore. 

 

Then we get into the realm of science fiction, at least for the moment. Over the long periods, maybe there will be a push to find an alternate home if our planet earth becomes inhabitable. However, the cost for space transportation and habitation must reduce significantly to make any meaningful resettlement of people at large. One can also argue that climate change will make life of Carbon-based humans (as well as other living things) much more difficult while that of a Silicon based “life”, such as robots powered by AI will be unaffected. How will that play out? What is in store for us?

Love of nature

Recently, on a flight from Los Angeles to Boston, we flew over California, Nevada, Utah and Colorado before the clouds moved in. As always, I was sitting on a window-seat, and I was amazed at the scene unfolding underneath. The geology of the landscape below us was astounding, especially while flying over Utah. Although I have been to Utah several times, and flown over it, I still get spellbound by the beauty that the nature presents to us. 

 

What was equally amazing was how few people were watching the drama. Only three out of fifty or so windows on the airplane were open. The rest were closed and remained so for the whole flight. The cabin remained dark even in broad daylight. As the entertainment system was not working, even that was not the reason for people not to enjoy what was going on. It must be that the fellow travelers were absorbed in their electronic devices…smart phones and laptops. 

 

This is a big problem, and it starts when the potential user of the addictive and attention-grabbing device is young, say in a high school. One of the non-profits I work with is trying to do something about it. They want to introduce nature to these youngsters, not in a scientific way, but as a place you go to for relaxation and peace of mind. Most of these kids don’t have an easy way to enjoy nature, and so, this non-profit takes them to parks and hiking trails that are all around the city. The program has been successful and now some organizations have started retaining this non-profit to introduce their employees to the same pleasure.  A happy and peaceful employee is more productive than the one who sits in front of the screen the whole day. 

 

To me, personally, being out in nature is where I am happiest. Fortunately, the place we live in allows this to happen, with very little time spent in getting to hiking trails and enjoying nature. I feel good when I am on a trail going up a hill or on a mountain overlooking the scenery underneath. Some of my fondest memories are the hikes and treks we have done over the years and all around the world. 

 

The other way nature provides me happiness is through photography. I can, and do take photos of landscapes, of course, but equally important to me are photos of small things…a bud, a petal, a leaf, or a bird. All taken in one of our nearby gardens with a telephoto lens. Nature comes in infinite variety, and I am just a recorder. 

 

I just wish I can impart the same level of enthusiasm and passion for nature to my fellow travelers in this life. 

 

All they need to do is just open the window.   

Navigating through Photoglut

 When I started photography, it was strictly black and white. I used on my father’s Rolleiflex a twin reflex camera in which you look down in the top of the camera to see what you are capturing.  Each roll contained twelve negatives and after finishing them, you had to take it to a photographer who will process and develop them in the next couple of days. This was certainly not free, and for many of us, using color film was prohibitively expensive. 

Just imagine. Now photos have become free and even the device most of us carry in our pockets can take them without any training. Like gluttons we take hundreds if not thousands of them. 

 

For example, give your iPhone to someone to take a picture of you and your wife. Does she take one? No, she will take a dozen, almost identical looking, before handing you back the camera. Well, at least, you don’t have to explain the potential photographer how to use your camera. 

 

The website I post my better (artistic) pictures is called Flickr, where some 25 million images get posted by 50 million photographers. Out of this staggering number of images posted, an algorithm selects 500 for their Explore gallery, based on what they call “interestingness”. The exact algorithm used is secret, but the sheer numbers are unbelievable. You have a chance of one in 50,000 to get “Explored”.  In the old days, there was no easy way to get your photos in front of millions of users, leave alone get selected daily for some honor, however tenuously.

 

David Day, one fine photographer who came to talk to us during our twice-a-month meeting told us that he takes 500 to 1000 photos after he has created a setup. My question to him is: How do you make out which one is a keeper? The same question to all of us: Of the thousands of photographs we all take, how do we know what to keep, and for what?

 

I am as guilty as the others. I am constantly taking pictures, some with my iPhone, some with my single lens reflex cameras. On my laptop and iPhone, I have thousands of photos. Although I go through some effort to organize them, I have no idea what to do with them. Nobody wants to see a long slideshow of a place we have visited. Makes me remember days in Boston when I used to have well attended slideshows of photos of the places I had visited. Even of the Western USA.

 

Except for some very old photos, converted from paper photos to electronic ones, there is very little interest in seeing people pictures. As one of my photographer friends said, “After I have posted my pictures on FaceBook, I might as well dispose them off.”

 

We truly have a photoglut situation and no one has shown a way of how to navigate through it. 

Central Asia

 We came back from a three-week trip to two countries in Central Asia, Uzbekistan, and Georgia. It was an interesting experience in two very different countries. Even though both were part of Soviet Union until they gained independence in 1991, we came back impressed with one and loved the other. Let me elaborate.

We spent two weeks in Uzbekistan. For twelve of those days, we were on a tour organized by a local agency. They introduced us to the well-known cities like Tashkent, Khiva, Bukhara, and Samarkand. In addition, we toured through relatively unknown places like Nukus and spent some time in a remote area, sleeping in Yurts.

 

The Islamic monuments in Uzbekistan are simply amazing. Whether they are Mosques, Madrasahs, Palaces or Burial places; they are all huge with elaborate designs, carvings, paintings, and stonework. Anyone of them would be a standout monument in any other city, but in the Uzbek cities we visited, there are so many of them.

 

Although many of the cities gained fame during the silk route times as places that facilitated trading or where caravans got rest; the Islamic period monuments now dominate. There are also many vestiges of the Soviet era. However, those too are not that impressive. 

 

One interesting fact in the multi-layered history of this part of Central Asia is that Zoroastrians ruled before the Muslims came. One can witness the remnants of their civilization as well, such as the Tower of Silence where the dead bodies were left behind to be consumed by vultures. People from India are very familiar with this practice because Zoroastrians came to India to escape Muslim persecution in Iran. They are the ones known as Parsis. 

 

Uzbekistan is promoting itself heavily as a tourist destination. In fact, there are so many tourists in the more popular places that it could become a problem. Despite that, the country is spotlessly clean, and one hardly sees any poor people. Quite different from the American cities. 

 

Georgia is not like Uzbekistan, although they are relatively close geographically. For one, the dominant religion in Georgia is Orthodox Christianity, not Islam. While we were impressed with Uzbekistan, we loved Georgia. 

 

The area we explored (besides the capital Tbilisi) was to the north and east of this small country. The north part, in the Caucuses, looks like Switzerland. There is a major ski resort and a town ringed by snow covered mountains, just 10 km from the Russian border, that is very pleasant. The religious monuments are churches and cathedrals, some perched high in the mountains. No doubt they are impressive even though not as massive as the ones in Uzbekistan.

 

As it turns out, we were there during a major event in Georgian Orthodox church. The elder Patriarch (as the leader of the church is known) had passed away after being the head for some fifty years and a new one was selected. His investiture in a major cathedral in the ancient capital of Georgia took place just the day we visited it. What a coincidence!

 

A major claim to fame for Georgia is its wine industry. One whole area to the east of Tbilisi is devoted to grape growing and wine production. This is a very old industry, the oldest in the world, and the wine is frequently fermented in clay pots. The wine is tasty and sometimes amber colored. 

 

Overall, we thoroughly enjoyed our brief introduction to Central Asia. 

 

 

A little spacecraft that could

 NASA announced that in November of this year (2026), Voyager 1 will reach distance of one light-day from earth. That means, it will take one day (24 hours) for a radio signal going at speed of light to reach the spacecraft which is now16.1 billion miles away. No other spacecraft has gone that far. To put it in perspective, Voyager is now at four times the distance of Sun to Pluto. 

Launched in September 1977, the spacecraft is now close to 50 years old. Besides the scientific instruments and a power source, the spacecraft carries a Golden record. The record contains sounds and date to reconstruct images selected to portray the diversity of life and culture on Earth and is intended for any intelligent extraterrestrial life form who may find them. The record is, in other words, a time capsule. 

 

In 1990 the spacecraft took and sent back a photo of earth which was then 3.7 billion miles away. Barely visible within scattered light rays, the famous “pale blue dot” photograph reminded us of how tiny out home planet is. Taking this photo was Carl Sagan’s idea. He wanted to prove “the folly of human conceit and underscore our responsibility to treat each other kindly and to cherish and preserve the dot”. 

 

It was originally designed for a four-year mission to Jupiter and Saturn, the mission has been extended and it is likely that the spacecraft will keep sending data for a few more years. However, due to declining power, the instruments are being turned off. The power source is decaying plutonium which produces heat and that is converted to electricity. 

 

What is next for this spacecraft? Even while travelling at 38,000 miles per hour, it will take 40,000 years to reach another star. So, close encounters of any kind are remote.

 

Even then, the historic voyage of this little spacecraft demonstrates many things:

 

-- The technologies of the 70s have withstood the test of time. It is hard to imagine that almost everything this complex works almost 50 years after being built. 

 

-- The idealism surrounding the creation of a record that an intelligent extraterrestrial life form can find and interpret is heartwarming. The likelihood of that happening is very small but that did not prevent the designers (especially Carl Sagan) to put their minds behind the project.

 

-- As mentioned, we are still 40,000 years away from getting close to a star that is not our Sun. This is quite discouraging while contemplating human beings exploring our universe. Even in Sci-Fi books an encounter with a distant civilization requires going close to the speed of light, more than 17,000 times the speed of Voyager. That would require a special type of power drive and the voyage would be multi-generational if human beings are onboard.

 

-- In spite the picture from Voyager showing that we live on a fragile pale blue dot, we do not seem to be doing anything differently. We keep fighting wars, talk about destroying civilizations and pay very little attention to truly existential threats like climate change.

 

Despite all that, let us still cheer on the little spacecraft that could (as we cheered the little engine that could when many of us had children)

Blessing and curse

 Like most people, I use my smartphone for all types of activities. 

One that I like most is to use the GPS feature that allows us to get to any place I wish. This is important in a new city where we do not have memory of direction built in. I remember the good old days when I travelled to different cities for client work. All I had were maps from AAA and sometimes direction of how to get to the place I wanted to. This was quite complex in new cities at night. Rent a car, either memorize the direction or pull over to get bearing every now and then. I am truly happy; I don’t need to do that anymore. This is truly a blessing provided by smartphones (and other connected devices). 

 

However, there are so many other applications enabled by the smartphones that are both blessing and curse. Let me provide some examples.

 

A great capability provided by the smartphone is taking pictures. You don’t have to lug expensive and heavy camera equipment anymore; the photos taken by the smartphones are good enough. Of course, this also creates legions of selfie-takers. Go to any touristy place in the world and you would be mobbed by people with smart phones taking pictures. Are they really enjoying the place of merely want to post the photos to prove they were at that exotic place?

 

I see younger folks who are glued to their phones every moment in a day. At tables in restaurants, I see couples engrossed in their phones instead of talking to each other. At my gym, no one talks or even make eye contact. Everyone is glued to the phone when not pulling weights. The same situation is evident in a social get together. Some folks need to periodically check the phone and disengage from conversation. Doesn’t that diminish the importance of communicating with someone right in front of you? 

 

Now, when they are using their phones, they may not be communicating with other folks, but what is called “consuming content”. Yes, thanks to the smart phone, you can get downloads from all kinds of places and people, you can watch videos and movies wherever you are, you can be alerted by breaking news, or listen to any music you want. Does that however impact enjoying the moment? Also, don’t you feel inundated with content?

 

Now, especially with prevalence of AI, you can get an answer to any question right away, using your smart phone. However, does that mean that you don’t need to read and remember anything? Will that impact the long-term functioning of our brains?

 

My phone is keeping track of how many steps I have taken each day. However, am I becoming obsessive in keeping such statistics? Am I enjoying the process of walking or just want to get beyond my goal of 10,000 steps every day? 

 

Maybe I am grouchy because I belong to the previous generation. Perhaps the current generation will find nothing wrong in what the smartphones have wrought. 

Hey, the future belongs to them, so why should I complain? 

Space based data centers

 Elon Musk, the person who brought you Tesla and SpaceX, has another idea. This time it is about locating data centers not on some place on earth, but in space. On the surface of it, this quite visionary.

As most of us have learned, a major challenge in a world awash in AI is that the energy consumption will go up enormously. The current grid can not handle this major increase and a solution must be found. Building data centers on ground has significant environmental, infrastructure and quality-of-life concerns. In comes good old Elon and the idea of space-based data centers. 

 

Before you scoff at this idea, remember that Elon has already put a space based “Starlink Constellation” which is allowing internet connections that do not require massive infrastructure investment. His company, SpaceX has a powerful rocket, Starship, which will be put to good use in launching future data centers.

 

By the way, Musk is not the only one who thinks this way, Sam Altman of OpenAI has a similar vision. Except the two don’t want to deal with each other, so Altman is looking at other options to get space-based data centers. Google is also interested in this type of data centers and is planning to launch a prototype in near future, as soon as 2027. Their project has a catchy name, Suncatcher. So, even if you are a skeptic of what Elon Musk says or promises, there are a bunch of other folks who are pursuing the same dream. Hopefully, someone will succeed. 

 

The energy to power the data centers will come from the sun. That brought back memories of an inventor at one of the companies I worked for, Arthur D. Little. Peter Glaser, a Czechoslovakia born Vice President of the firm had come up with the idea of Solar Power Satellites to generate power and beam it to earth. This renewable energy source would have done wonders, but the cost was too high, and there was a lot of skepticism, especially around the safety of power beams. This idea is not dead, Japan and China are still pursuing this type of satellites.

 

With the advent of AI, the game has changed. The power generated does not need to be beamed back to the earth but used onboard the satellite to power data centers. However, there are technological and financial challenges posed by this solution. 

 

A major challenge would be to get rid of heat of the data center. Since there is no air to carry it away, as is the case in earth bound data centers, some other way needs to be explored.

 

That brought back another memory, again from Arthur D. Little. Peter Teagan, a senior engineer, and a Vice President had come up with a brilliant solution to a similar problem. That time, the satellite in the orbit was going to be involved with space base lasers, generating a lot of heat. Peter came up with an idea that used a liquid belt radiator. In this, a belt would rotate around the satellite, dipping inside to go through a bath of liquid metal. When if came out at the other end, heat was released by radiation and metal on the belt solidified until it went back again. The rotation could continue indefinitely with very low power since there would be very little friction.

 

One major problem was what would happen if the satellite moved, say because of changing orbit or docking with another satellite. This would cause instability in the rotation of the fragile belt. Would it ever get back to doing its work? 

 

I created a compute simulation of the belt and ran it through various scenarios. The answer was that stability will be gained in a short time. NASA wanted to test the simulation, by running a belt in an airplane that dives to simulate zero-g. I desperately wanted to take a ride but was bypassed by a technician who would cost a lot less to the client. 

 

Musk is not talking of a liquid belt radiator. Instead, he will deploy massive foldable radiators to dissipate heat. They will be taken up by the powerful Starship rockets.

 

All this is going to require a huge investment. Musk plans to use upcoming public offering of SpaceX to fund the venture. I suppose, given the desperate need to power the upcoming AI revolution, things will happen sooner than later. If they do happen in my lifetime, I will look up in the night sky, see a space-based datacenter and think of my former colleagues at Arthur D. Little. 

 

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PS: I fully acknowledge that Elon Musk is a controversial character. People hate him for what he has done politically, especially in recent times. I agree, but at the same time, I believe that he is a man of vision and at least two of the industries he has launched are a testament to that. We all have opinions about this man, so let me have mine.