Blessing and curse

 Like most people, I use my smartphone for all types of activities. 

One that I like most is to use the GPS feature that allows us to get to any place I wish. This is important in a new city where we do not have memory of direction built in. I remember the good old days when I travelled to different cities for client work. All I had were maps from AAA and sometimes direction of how to get to the place I wanted to. This was quite complex in new cities at night. Rent a car, either memorize the direction or pull over to get bearing every now and then. I am truly happy; I don’t need to do that anymore. This is truly a blessing provided by smartphones (and other connected devices). 

 

However, there are so many other applications enabled by the smartphones that are both blessing and curse. Let me provide some examples.

 

A great capability provided by the smartphone is taking pictures. You don’t have to lug expensive and heavy camera equipment anymore; the photos taken by the smartphones are good enough. Of course, this also creates legions of selfie-takers. Go to any touristy place in the world and you would be mobbed by people with smart phones taking pictures. Are they really enjoying the place of merely want to post the photos to prove they were at that exotic place?

 

I see younger folks who are glued to their phones every moment in a day. At tables in restaurants, I see couples engrossed in their phones instead of talking to each other. At my gym, no one talks or even make eye contact. Everyone is glued to the phone when not pulling weights. The same situation is evident in a social get together. Some folks need to periodically check the phone and disengage from conversation. Doesn’t that diminish the importance of communicating with someone right in front of you? 

 

Now, when they are using their phones, they may not be communicating with other folks, but what is called “consuming content”. Yes, thanks to the smart phone, you can get downloads from all kinds of places and people, you can watch videos and movies wherever you are, you can be alerted by breaking news, or listen to any music you want. Does that however impact enjoying the moment? Also, don’t you feel inundated with content?

 

Now, especially with prevalence of AI, you can get an answer to any question right away, using your smart phone. However, does that mean that you don’t need to read and remember anything? Will that impact the long-term functioning of our brains?

 

My phone is keeping track of how many steps I have taken each day. However, am I becoming obsessive in keeping such statistics? Am I enjoying the process of walking or just want to get beyond my goal of 10,000 steps every day? 

 

Maybe I am grouchy because I belong to the previous generation. Perhaps the current generation will find nothing wrong in what the smartphones have wrought. 

Hey, the future belongs to them, so why should I complain? 

Space based data centers

 Elon Musk, the person who brought you Tesla and SpaceX, has another idea. This time it is about locating data centers not on some place on earth, but in space. On the surface of it, this quite visionary.

As most of us have learned, a major challenge in a world awash in AI is that the energy consumption will go up enormously. The current grid can not handle this major increase and a solution must be found. Building data centers on ground has significant environmental, infrastructure and quality-of-life concerns. In comes good old Elon and the idea of space-based data centers. 

 

Before you scoff at this idea, remember that Elon has already put a space based “Starlink Constellation” which is allowing internet connections that do not require massive infrastructure investment. His company, SpaceX has a powerful rocket, Starship, which will be put to good use in launching future data centers.

 

By the way, Musk is not the only one who thinks this way, Sam Altman of OpenAI has a similar vision. Except the two don’t want to deal with each other, so Altman is looking at other options to get space-based data centers. Google is also interested in this type of data centers and is planning to launch a prototype in near future, as soon as 2027. Their project has a catchy name, Suncatcher. So, even if you are a skeptic of what Elon Musk says or promises, there are a bunch of other folks who are pursuing the same dream. Hopefully, someone will succeed. 

 

The energy to power the data centers will come from the sun. That brought back memories of an inventor at one of the companies I worked for, Arthur D. Little. Peter Glaser, a Czechoslovakia born Vice President of the firm had come up with the idea of Solar Power Satellites to generate power and beam it to earth. This renewable energy source would have done wonders, but the cost was too high, and there was a lot of skepticism, especially around the safety of power beams. This idea is not dead, Japan and China are still pursuing this type of satellites.

 

With the advent of AI, the game has changed. The power generated does not need to be beamed back to the earth but used onboard the satellite to power data centers. However, there are technological and financial challenges posed by this solution. 

 

A major challenge would be to get rid of heat of the data center. Since there is no air to carry it away, as is the case in earth bound data centers, some other way needs to be explored.

 

That brought back another memory, again from Arthur D. Little. Peter Teagan, a senior engineer, and a Vice President had come up with a brilliant solution to a similar problem. That time, the satellite in the orbit was going to be involved with space base lasers, generating a lot of heat. Peter came up with an idea that used a liquid belt radiator. In this, a belt would rotate around the satellite, dipping inside to go through a bath of liquid metal. When if came out at the other end, heat was released by radiation and metal on the belt solidified until it went back again. The rotation could continue indefinitely with very low power since there would be very little friction.

 

One major problem was what would happen if the satellite moved, say because of changing orbit or docking with another satellite. This would cause instability in the rotation of the fragile belt. Would it ever get back to doing its work? 

 

I created a compute simulation of the belt and ran it through various scenarios. The answer was that stability will be gained in a short time. NASA wanted to test the simulation, by running a belt in an airplane that dives to simulate zero-g. I desperately wanted to take a ride but was bypassed by a technician who would cost a lot less to the client. 

 

Musk is not talking of a liquid belt radiator. Instead, he will deploy massive foldable radiators to dissipate heat. They will be taken up by the powerful Starship rockets.

 

All this is going to require a huge investment. Musk plans to use upcoming public offering of SpaceX to fund the venture. I suppose, given the desperate need to power the upcoming AI revolution, things will happen sooner than later. If they do happen in my lifetime, I will look up in the night sky, see a space-based datacenter and think of my former colleagues at Arthur D. Little. 

 

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PS: I fully acknowledge that Elon Musk is a controversial character. People hate him for what he has done politically, especially in recent times. I agree, but at the same time, I believe that he is a man of vision and at least two of the industries he has launched are a testament to that. We all have opinions about this man, so let me have mine.

 

 

 

Why do we post pictures?

 Social media is full of photos posted by almost all users. Some post photos of families or special occasions, some of their proud possession, some of the fabulous trip they took. Some others use the social media as a gallery of their fine photographic work, and boast about the awards they won. 

 

I am no exception, so what I write here is true for me as well. I use FaceBook (FB) as my primary outlet, but also use WhatsApp for folks who are not on the FaceBook. My wife and I are well-travelled people, so certainly you will see photos of the trips we have taken recently or in the past (reminded by FB). In addition, I post images that I have taken as a photographer and digital art I have created. Finally, there are some photos of our hikes and socializing.

 

I ask myself, why I do that? Why indeed my fellow social media users, and that includes almost all of my friends and family members, do the same? Although individual motivations differ, here are some general observations. 

 

On the surface of it, we post because we want to inform the readers/observers what we have been up to. We hope that they would reciprocate and do the same. Our travel photos are educational, and informative for people who may want to do the same someday. Maybe the artistic photos delight some folks, just as they would by seeing a work of art. 

 

However, go a bit deeper and secondary (or is it primary?) motivation becomes apparent. We post because we want some praise in return. Whether these are comments on social media or things like “likes” on FB, this type of feedback pampers our ego, and not getting it deflates it.

 

This is not materialism but “experiencism” a term I had coined in my Blog Post of September 2018. Just as a materialistic person would brag about his/her house or car, we experiencistic folks like to brag about the experience we have gained, and what better way than posting pictures on social media? 

 

In German there is a term Schadenfreude, or happiness derived from someone else’s misfortune. This may be quite applicable here. By indicating what a great experience we have had, and you have not, we are getting schadenfreude. 

 

Once upon a time, I had proposed a test to determine your level of materialism by asking yourself what you really need vs what you acquire for the purpose of showing off. This test is: If you cannot show anyone what you have or talk about it, what will you possess? That is what you need, the rest is for showing off. 

 

A similar test for an experience acquirer would be: If you cannot talk about it or post pictures, what trip would you have undertaken? That is the travel you undertake to satisfy your inner desire. The rest, at least partially, are to show off and pamper your ego. 

So, what should one do prior to achieving an ego-free state? Some simple suggestions:

 

For the poster of photos: Post, but don’t expect that everyone will respond enthusiastically. Do not feel slighted if nobody does. Also, don’t post too many at the same time. Your recipients are already suffering from information overload.

 

For the watchers of photos: Please look at the postings, not all of them but those that are of interest to you. Respond to them; that will please the poster of photos. Even if you are envious, don’t let that prevent you from responding. Also, don’t respond with photos of your experience of similar nature. At least, not right away. Acknowledge, appreciate and then mention that you had done something similar. 

 

These are the lessons I have learned over the years of posting photos on FB. Hopefully, I am getting better. 

 

 

 

AI and creative images

 Artificial Intelligence (AI) is making quick inroads into photography and, specifically, in creative image making. As I am involved, as an amateur, in that field, I need to think about where this may be leading to. I welcome any assistance I may get from AI but do not want it to overpower my creativity. (I am sure those in the other creative fields will think similarly.

So, here are my thoughts. 

 

First, for the sake of convenience, I am dividing this type of creativity into four buckets:

 

1. Creative capturing of a photograph,

2. Creative post processing to enhances a photograph, 

3. Creative non-realistic image from photograph(s), and

4. Creative image purely from software.

 

Second, let me elaborate each one and insert my thinking of how AI could impact it.

 

1. Creative capturing of a photograph 

 

This is where one needs to find the right subject, compose it correctly, make sure the lighting is good and capture it. No post processing is required in expressing this type of creativity. The image stands by itself. 

 

AI can suggest subjects within the camera’s viewfinder.  Once approved by the user, it can then provide guidance through composition and lighting. This way, an average photographer can start making better images, both for keeping record (people, places), and for creative purposes.

 

This is my favorite bucket and a common compliment I have heard is that “I have an eye for photography.” Hopefully, I will continue to learn, through AI, and keep producing even more pleasing images.

 

2. Creative post processing to enhances a photograph

 

Although, sometimes I am happy to stop after just capturing the image, I often use tools such as Lightroom and Photoshop to post process the photograph I have taken. These are not easy software tools to master, and my camera club spends a good deal of time explaining what can be done using these, and other, similar packages. The resulting image is superior to the one captured. Distractions are removed, there is more contrast, and the image is better cropped, among other improvements.

 

This is where AI can provide a big help. As my cousin, who is an AI expert, points out the benefits of AI packages, such as ChatGPT for this type of creativity. Instead of learning the intricacies of Photoshop, just saying (or typing) “make this image darker” to will do the trick. This certainly looks quite attractive. Now of course, AI may have a different interpretation of what looks good compared to mine, but that is a learnable difference to overcome. 

 

If you enter your images thus created into a competition, there may be an issue. Depending on who is running the competition, and the category of competition, the use of AI may be restricted. Generally, the most open category is “Creative” where AI can be used without any issues, but that is not the case for the more restrictive categories, such as “Nature”.

 

3. Creative non-realistic image from photograph(s),

 

Now we are truly venturing into the creative field. What comes out does not have to represent reality but rather an artistic expression that stimulates the mind of an observer. The intent is not to record something but to create an artwork. 

 

This is the area I hope to master, and my tools are Lightroom to some extent, and Photoshop to a great extent. I can apply filters to radically change the photograph(s) I have taken and use layers to create a composite. I can, for example, insert an image of a polar bear in an unlikely situation, or use a distort filter to create an abstract image. I can radically alter color and saturation so that the image is a work of art (at least in my mind) and not a realistic representation anymore. I imagine and then I strive to produce.

 

The way in which AI can provides assistance in this area  is to make suggestions on how abstract images can be created from a photograph I have taken, or how could different photos from my library can be combined to develop likable composites. 

 

4. Creative image purely from software

 

AI makes it possible to create an image, say of a spaceship on an alien plant, purely from prompts given by the creator. No photographs are required. However, now we are invading the space that an artist with a brush and paint occupies, not a traditional photographer. However, AI can also be asked to create a photorealistic image of a scene, based purely on prompts, such as “create a picture of a lake in the mountains”. 

 

Now, I am not involved with this type of creativity, but I admire the imagination of creators and ability of AI software to produce some fabulous images. This is clearly an area where AI will make a huge impact because its very existence depends on it. Someday, I can see myself becoming good at creating images this way. 

 

My fear has always been that AI will replace me and my creativity will drop down to just writing the appropriate prompts.  Now I feel that AI will help me get better, and in some ways give me opportunities in areas that did not exist in the past. I can thus spend more time in imagining and less time producing.

 

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Experiences, not number of countries

 Recently, someone wrote on FB that she is trying to get to 130 countries in ten years. An admirable goal, but one that is perhaps it is not the right one to set. Here are some reasons, based on my experience (and I have travelled a lot):

1. Some of the countries you need to visit to get to such a high number may not be interesting to visit. 

 

In my youth, I had set up a similar goal. There is, in fact, Traveler’s Century Club, an organization which helps you track the countries you visit and when you reach 100, you get some sort of certificate. Some of the “countries” they identify are territories, and so this goal can be achieved more quickly than you expect. I have been to 66 countries but 92 territories. 

 

I gave up on getting to 100 (although I am close), because the continent rich in remaining countries is Africa and I am not too keen to go through many countries in that continent, besides the five I have been to. It is a personal choice, I know.

 

2. Some countries may deserve more than one trip.

 

It is hard to go to one place in a country like India, US, or Italy and say that you have seen these countries. They have such a variety in terms of experiences you can gain, that multiple visits are required to enjoy them, even though your country count will not go up. 

 

3. There are so many experiences in countries where you live.

 

We live in United States and it is a country full of variations; in terms of geography, people, history and weather. I can imagine spending all my time in this one country and not get all the experiences it offers. I am sure a similar claim can be made by people living in many other countries.

 

4. Some countries are dangerous to visit.

 

Yes! I had to curtail my list of fascinating places to visit because of all the political turmoil going on. This list includes Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Israel, Lebanon, and so on. I hope that someday peace will prevail and I am able to get to these places, however, I am not holding my breath. 

 

5. Some countries may provide similar experience to the ones you already had.

 

Once you have been to many places, this becomes an important factor. We have not been to New Zealand, because we believe that scenery there is similar to that in Patagonia, which we have been to.  Similarly, the scenery in countries such as Kyrgyzstan seems so similar to what we have seen in our own Utah or Arizona. Some of the pacific island countries cannot be much different than Hawaii. I agree that the cultural aspects are different in these places than those we have been to, but the scenery is one major reason to visit.  

 

So, I suggest not setting a travel goal based on the number of countries you visit. Base it on the experience you will likely get. 

Serenity

 Through my previous Posts, you might be familiar with my six-cell matrix for leading a well-balanced retired life. 

 

(See : https://medium.com/@aboghani/the-next-phase-of-retired-life-3e9bb2a799fa or https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/5874035607402295489/957915496350662353 )

 

I recommended performing activities in each of the six cells on a regular basis, as I try to do, in order to achieve a meaningful retired life. 

 

I have now added one more box, based on my experience and that of others I have observed. The new matrix is as follows:

The new box, Serenity activities, contains what you do, or should do to achieve serenity, as the name suggests. This could include, for example, meditation, spiritual or religious activities, depending on your preferences. One of the objectives of these activities is to achieve inner calmness and acceptance of the way things are. These are important at any phase of life but when you are retired, they become even more acute. You ask yourself what is the purpose of life; and fret about things that are so insignificant that they should not matter. This is when meditation or religious activities become important. As they say, “grant me courage to change things I can, serenity to accept what I cannot and wisdom to know the difference”. Without serenity, this does not work.

 

Now, there are activities such as enjoying natural surrounding or taking a walk, that may provide serenity. In other words, the activities in each cell can serve multiple purposes. That is true for any of the cells, for example, a socializing activity may be a right brain activity as well.

 

When I hear the term ‘time-pass’ activity, I cringe a little bit. During many years that I have retired there has never been a day when I had to do something just to pass time. I do not know what the future will bring; and when my ability to walk, travel or hike declines. 

 

At the moment, I feel reasonably confident that I will find a meaningful activity to pursue even then.  

AI and human beings

 One of the organizations I belong to in Los Angeles provides very low-cost consulting (among other things) to non-profits in this area. They do so by recruiting and training mostly retired executives who are able to provide consulting or coaching at no cost. 

They recently put together a seminar on how we can use AI in our work. This three-hour training included a brief description of what AI is all about, and how to prompt Chatbots to come out with useful information, such as questionnaires to be used or job descriptions for various positions in the organization. In other words, the type of stuff we would need to do for the assignments. 

 

One question I asked to the staff involved in teaching was what would be the role of us human beings in such a consulting world? There were no clear answers. So, I decided to continue my quest. 

 

Interestingly, the same evening, while going for my walk, I heard a very informative Podcast on the subject. This is called “Asking for a friend…which jobs are safe from AI” on Planet Money. Of the two people they used as subjects, one is deciding to study for law but wondering if the expense he goes through will be recovered once he gets his degree but find himself outcompeted by AI. The other is a designer who is wondering if she should take up jobs like welding or plumbing which are likely to survive the AI onslaught. 

 

To answer these questions, the Podcast discussed work done by Daniel Rock, an AI researcher, who came out with what would be the Exposure to AI for some one thousand jobs. He did that by identifying tasks done in each job and then assigning an exposure index. If AI can do the task in half the time, it got score E1, if it cannot, the score would be E0, and for an in between situation, the task will get E2. This was done for some 20,000 tasks involved with the 1000 jobs. 

 

At the bottom (very little chance of AI intrusion) are jobs such as wellhead thumper operator, metal casters, athletes, dancers and coaches. At the highest level are knowledge workers and public relations jobs. Dan cautions that even at the highest levels, AI will not replace the jobs but will change them drastically. AI could become a general-purpose technology, like electricity and it will make vast changes in the economy. His list is indicative but not definitive in terms of jobs that will disappear. 

 

However, for the jobs that are highly exposed, it will be good and if you could productively use AI. In the end, if demand is elastic, such increase in productivity would be great. If it is inelastic, there will be job losses. 

 

Roberto Rigobon at MIT has approached the problem from a different angle: He asks: “What are Humans good for?” He then looked at each task in a job and scored them along for the following five parameters that require a human being.

 

Empathy (E), Presence (P), Opinion (O), Creativity (C), and Hope (H). Higher the EPOCH score is, more likely it is that the humans are needed. 

 

At the top of the list are jobs like Emergency Management Director, IT Project Manager, and such. Even Construction Workers scored high on Empathy. The clerical jobs, insurance appraisers, tax preparers, and such scored less.

 

In the end, the question is whether AI will automate or augment a job. If a job requires tasks that are connected, AI will augment the job even if some tasks are exposed as AI replacement. For example, AI can prepare the slides but a human is needed to deliver a lecture. There. AI augments but does not replace a human being. 

 

So, for the two people who were asking questions about AI, the response for the person who is deciding to go to the law school: Do join the school and become a lawyer. Get good at delivering a judgement and not performing clerical tasks. Learn how to think and imagine. Then you won’t be replaced. 

 

To the designer thinking about learning how to be a plumber: What if everyone decides to do that? There will be too many plumbers and the wages will drop. 

 

In the end, there is not list of jobs that are immune to AI encroachment. We are in for a weird ride, according to this Podcast.