Love of nature

Recently, on a flight from Los Angeles to Boston, we flew over California, Nevada, Utah and Colorado before the clouds moved in. As always, I was sitting on a window-seat, and I was amazed at the scene unfolding underneath. The geology of the landscape below us was astounding, especially while flying over Utah. Although I have been to Utah several times, and flown over it, I still get spellbound by the beauty that the nature presents to us. 

 

What was equally amazing was how few people were watching the drama. Only three out of fifty or so windows on the airplane were open. The rest were closed and remained so for the whole flight. The cabin remained dark even in broad daylight. As the entertainment system was not working, even that was not the reason for people not to enjoy what was going on. It must be that the fellow travelers were absorbed in their electronic devices…smart phones and laptops. 

 

This is a big problem, and it starts when the potential user of the addictive and attention-grabbing device is young, say in a high school. One of the non-profits I work with is trying to do something about it. They want to introduce nature to these youngsters, not in a scientific way, but as a place you go to for relaxation and peace of mind. Most of these kids don’t have an easy way to enjoy nature, and so, this non-profit takes them to parks and hiking trails that are all around the city. The program has been successful and now some organizations have started retaining this non-profit to introduce their employees to the same pleasure.  A happy and peaceful employee is more productive than the one who sits in front of the screen the whole day. 

 

To me, personally, being out in nature is where I am happiest. Fortunately, the place we live in allows this to happen, with very little time spent in getting to hiking trails and enjoying nature. I feel good when I am on a trail going up a hill or on a mountain overlooking the scenery underneath. Some of my fondest memories are the hikes and treks we have done over the years and all around the world. 

 

The other way nature provides me happiness is through photography. I can, and do take photos of landscapes, of course, but equally important to me are photos of small things…a bud, a petal, a leaf, or a bird. All taken in one of our nearby gardens with a telephoto lens. Nature comes in infinite variety, and I am just a recorder. 

 

I just wish I can impart the same level of enthusiasm and passion for nature to my fellow travelers in this life. 

 

All they need to do is just open the window.   

Navigating through Photoglut

 When I started photography, it was strictly black and white. I used on my father’s Rolleiflex a twin reflex camera in which you look down in the top of the camera to see what you are capturing.  Each roll contained twelve negatives and after finishing them, you had to take it to a photographer who will process and develop them in the next couple of days. This was certainly not free, and for many of us, using color film was prohibitively expensive. 

Just imagine. Now photos have become free and even the device most of us carry in our pockets can take them without any training. Like gluttons we take hundreds if not thousands of them. 

 

For example, give your iPhone to someone to take a picture of you and your wife. Does she take one? No, she will take a dozen, almost identical looking, before handing you back the camera. Well, at least, you don’t have to explain the potential photographer how to use your camera. 

 

The website I post my better (artistic) pictures is called Flickr, where some 25 million images get posted by 50 million photographers. Out of this staggering number of images posted, an algorithm selects 500 for their Explore gallery, based on what they call “interestingness”. The exact algorithm used is secret, but the sheer numbers are unbelievable. You have a chance of one in 50,000 to get “Explored”.  In the old days, there was no easy way to get your photos in front of millions of users, leave alone get selected daily for some honor, however tenuously.

 

David Day, one fine photographer who came to talk to us during our twice-a-month meeting told us that he takes 500 to 1000 photos after he has created a setup. My question to him is: How do you make out which one is a keeper? The same question to all of us: Of the thousands of photographs we all take, how do we know what to keep, and for what?

 

I am as guilty as the others. I am constantly taking pictures, some with my iPhone, some with my single lens reflex cameras. On my laptop and iPhone, I have thousands of photos. Although I go through some effort to organize them, I have no idea what to do with them. Nobody wants to see a long slideshow of a place we have visited. Makes me remember days in Boston when I used to have well attended slideshows of photos of the places I had visited. Even of the Western USA.

 

Except for some very old photos, converted from paper photos to electronic ones, there is very little interest in seeing people pictures. As one of my photographer friends said, “After I have posted my pictures on FaceBook, I might as well dispose them off.”

 

We truly have a photoglut situation and no one has shown a way of how to navigate through it. 

Central Asia

 We came back from a three-week trip to two countries in Central Asia, Uzbekistan, and Georgia. It was an interesting experience in two very different countries. Even though both were part of Soviet Union until they gained independence in 1991, we came back impressed with one and loved the other. Let me elaborate.

We spent two weeks in Uzbekistan. For twelve of those days, we were on a tour organized by a local agency. They introduced us to the well-known cities like Tashkent, Khiva, Bukhara, and Samarkand. In addition, we toured through relatively unknown places like Nukus and spent some time in a remote area, sleeping in Yurts.

 

The Islamic monuments in Uzbekistan are simply amazing. Whether they are Mosques, Madrasahs, Palaces or Burial places; they are all huge with elaborate designs, carvings, paintings, and stonework. Anyone of them would be a standout monument in any other city, but in the Uzbek cities we visited, there are so many of them.

 

Although many of the cities gained fame during the silk route times as places that facilitated trading or where caravans got rest; the Islamic period monuments now dominate. There are also many vestiges of the Soviet era. However, those too are not that impressive. 

 

One interesting fact in the multi-layered history of this part of Central Asia is that Zoroastrians ruled before the Muslims came. One can witness the remnants of their civilization as well, such as the Tower of Silence where the dead bodies were left behind to be consumed by vultures. People from India are very familiar with this practice because Zoroastrians came to India to escape Muslim persecution in Iran. They are the ones known as Parsis. 

 

Uzbekistan is promoting itself heavily as a tourist destination. In fact, there are so many tourists in the more popular places that it could become a problem. Despite that, the country is spotlessly clean, and one hardly sees any poor people. Quite different from the American cities. 

 

Georgia is not like Uzbekistan, although they are relatively close geographically. For one, the dominant religion in Georgia is Orthodox Christianity, not Islam. While we were impressed with Uzbekistan, we loved Georgia. 

 

The area we explored (besides the capital Tbilisi) was to the north and east of this small country. The north part, in the Caucuses, looks like Switzerland. There is a major ski resort and a town ringed by snow covered mountains, just 10 km from the Russian border, that is very pleasant. The religious monuments are churches and cathedrals, some perched high in the mountains. No doubt they are impressive even though not as massive as the ones in Uzbekistan.

 

As it turns out, we were there during a major event in Georgian Orthodox church. The elder Patriarch (as the leader of the church is known) had passed away after being the head for some fifty years and a new one was selected. His investiture in a major cathedral in the ancient capital of Georgia took place just the day we visited it. What a coincidence!

 

A major claim to fame for Georgia is its wine industry. One whole area to the east of Tbilisi is devoted to grape growing and wine production. This is a very old industry, the oldest in the world, and the wine is frequently fermented in clay pots. The wine is tasty and sometimes amber colored. 

 

Overall, we thoroughly enjoyed our brief introduction to Central Asia. 

 

 

A little spacecraft that could

 NASA announced that in November of this year (2026), Voyager 1 will reach distance of one light-day from earth. That means, it will take one day (24 hours) for a radio signal going at speed of light to reach the spacecraft which is now16.1 billion miles away. No other spacecraft has gone that far. To put it in perspective, Voyager is now at four times the distance of Sun to Pluto. 

Launched in September 1977, the spacecraft is now close to 50 years old. Besides the scientific instruments and a power source, the spacecraft carries a Golden record. The record contains sounds and date to reconstruct images selected to portray the diversity of life and culture on Earth and is intended for any intelligent extraterrestrial life form who may find them. The record is, in other words, a time capsule. 

 

In 1990 the spacecraft took and sent back a photo of earth which was then 3.7 billion miles away. Barely visible within scattered light rays, the famous “pale blue dot” photograph reminded us of how tiny out home planet is. Taking this photo was Carl Sagan’s idea. He wanted to prove “the folly of human conceit and underscore our responsibility to treat each other kindly and to cherish and preserve the dot”. 

 

It was originally designed for a four-year mission to Jupiter and Saturn, the mission has been extended and it is likely that the spacecraft will keep sending data for a few more years. However, due to declining power, the instruments are being turned off. The power source is decaying plutonium which produces heat and that is converted to electricity. 

 

What is next for this spacecraft? Even while travelling at 38,000 miles per hour, it will take 40,000 years to reach another star. So, close encounters of any kind are remote.

 

Even then, the historic voyage of this little spacecraft demonstrates many things:

 

-- The technologies of the 70s have withstood the test of time. It is hard to imagine that almost everything this complex works almost 50 years after being built. 

 

-- The idealism surrounding the creation of a record that an intelligent extraterrestrial life form can find and interpret is heartwarming. The likelihood of that happening is very small but that did not prevent the designers (especially Carl Sagan) to put their minds behind the project.

 

-- As mentioned, we are still 40,000 years away from getting close to a star that is not our Sun. This is quite discouraging while contemplating human beings exploring our universe. Even in Sci-Fi books an encounter with a distant civilization requires going close to the speed of light, more than 17,000 times the speed of Voyager. That would require a special type of power drive and the voyage would be multi-generational if human beings are onboard.

 

-- In spite the picture from Voyager showing that we live on a fragile pale blue dot, we do not seem to be doing anything differently. We keep fighting wars, talk about destroying civilizations and pay very little attention to truly existential threats like climate change.

 

Despite all that, let us still cheer on the little spacecraft that could (as we cheered the little engine that could when many of us had children)

Blessing and curse

 Like most people, I use my smartphone for all types of activities. 

One that I like most is to use the GPS feature that allows us to get to any place I wish. This is important in a new city where we do not have memory of direction built in. I remember the good old days when I travelled to different cities for client work. All I had were maps from AAA and sometimes direction of how to get to the place I wanted to. This was quite complex in new cities at night. Rent a car, either memorize the direction or pull over to get bearing every now and then. I am truly happy; I don’t need to do that anymore. This is truly a blessing provided by smartphones (and other connected devices). 

 

However, there are so many other applications enabled by the smartphones that are both blessing and curse. Let me provide some examples.

 

A great capability provided by the smartphone is taking pictures. You don’t have to lug expensive and heavy camera equipment anymore; the photos taken by the smartphones are good enough. Of course, this also creates legions of selfie-takers. Go to any touristy place in the world and you would be mobbed by people with smart phones taking pictures. Are they really enjoying the place of merely want to post the photos to prove they were at that exotic place?

 

I see younger folks who are glued to their phones every moment in a day. At tables in restaurants, I see couples engrossed in their phones instead of talking to each other. At my gym, no one talks or even make eye contact. Everyone is glued to the phone when not pulling weights. The same situation is evident in a social get together. Some folks need to periodically check the phone and disengage from conversation. Doesn’t that diminish the importance of communicating with someone right in front of you? 

 

Now, when they are using their phones, they may not be communicating with other folks, but what is called “consuming content”. Yes, thanks to the smart phone, you can get downloads from all kinds of places and people, you can watch videos and movies wherever you are, you can be alerted by breaking news, or listen to any music you want. Does that however impact enjoying the moment? Also, don’t you feel inundated with content?

 

Now, especially with prevalence of AI, you can get an answer to any question right away, using your smart phone. However, does that mean that you don’t need to read and remember anything? Will that impact the long-term functioning of our brains?

 

My phone is keeping track of how many steps I have taken each day. However, am I becoming obsessive in keeping such statistics? Am I enjoying the process of walking or just want to get beyond my goal of 10,000 steps every day? 

 

Maybe I am grouchy because I belong to the previous generation. Perhaps the current generation will find nothing wrong in what the smartphones have wrought. 

Hey, the future belongs to them, so why should I complain? 

Space based data centers

 Elon Musk, the person who brought you Tesla and SpaceX, has another idea. This time it is about locating data centers not on some place on earth, but in space. On the surface of it, this quite visionary.

As most of us have learned, a major challenge in a world awash in AI is that the energy consumption will go up enormously. The current grid can not handle this major increase and a solution must be found. Building data centers on ground has significant environmental, infrastructure and quality-of-life concerns. In comes good old Elon and the idea of space-based data centers. 

 

Before you scoff at this idea, remember that Elon has already put a space based “Starlink Constellation” which is allowing internet connections that do not require massive infrastructure investment. His company, SpaceX has a powerful rocket, Starship, which will be put to good use in launching future data centers.

 

By the way, Musk is not the only one who thinks this way, Sam Altman of OpenAI has a similar vision. Except the two don’t want to deal with each other, so Altman is looking at other options to get space-based data centers. Google is also interested in this type of data centers and is planning to launch a prototype in near future, as soon as 2027. Their project has a catchy name, Suncatcher. So, even if you are a skeptic of what Elon Musk says or promises, there are a bunch of other folks who are pursuing the same dream. Hopefully, someone will succeed. 

 

The energy to power the data centers will come from the sun. That brought back memories of an inventor at one of the companies I worked for, Arthur D. Little. Peter Glaser, a Czechoslovakia born Vice President of the firm had come up with the idea of Solar Power Satellites to generate power and beam it to earth. This renewable energy source would have done wonders, but the cost was too high, and there was a lot of skepticism, especially around the safety of power beams. This idea is not dead, Japan and China are still pursuing this type of satellites.

 

With the advent of AI, the game has changed. The power generated does not need to be beamed back to the earth but used onboard the satellite to power data centers. However, there are technological and financial challenges posed by this solution. 

 

A major challenge would be to get rid of heat of the data center. Since there is no air to carry it away, as is the case in earth bound data centers, some other way needs to be explored.

 

That brought back another memory, again from Arthur D. Little. Peter Teagan, a senior engineer, and a Vice President had come up with a brilliant solution to a similar problem. That time, the satellite in the orbit was going to be involved with space base lasers, generating a lot of heat. Peter came up with an idea that used a liquid belt radiator. In this, a belt would rotate around the satellite, dipping inside to go through a bath of liquid metal. When if came out at the other end, heat was released by radiation and metal on the belt solidified until it went back again. The rotation could continue indefinitely with very low power since there would be very little friction.

 

One major problem was what would happen if the satellite moved, say because of changing orbit or docking with another satellite. This would cause instability in the rotation of the fragile belt. Would it ever get back to doing its work? 

 

I created a compute simulation of the belt and ran it through various scenarios. The answer was that stability will be gained in a short time. NASA wanted to test the simulation, by running a belt in an airplane that dives to simulate zero-g. I desperately wanted to take a ride but was bypassed by a technician who would cost a lot less to the client. 

 

Musk is not talking of a liquid belt radiator. Instead, he will deploy massive foldable radiators to dissipate heat. They will be taken up by the powerful Starship rockets.

 

All this is going to require a huge investment. Musk plans to use upcoming public offering of SpaceX to fund the venture. I suppose, given the desperate need to power the upcoming AI revolution, things will happen sooner than later. If they do happen in my lifetime, I will look up in the night sky, see a space-based datacenter and think of my former colleagues at Arthur D. Little. 

 

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PS: I fully acknowledge that Elon Musk is a controversial character. People hate him for what he has done politically, especially in recent times. I agree, but at the same time, I believe that he is a man of vision and at least two of the industries he has launched are a testament to that. We all have opinions about this man, so let me have mine.

 

 

 

Why do we post pictures?

 Social media is full of photos posted by almost all users. Some post photos of families or special occasions, some of their proud possession, some of the fabulous trip they took. Some others use the social media as a gallery of their fine photographic work, and boast about the awards they won. 

 

I am no exception, so what I write here is true for me as well. I use FaceBook (FB) as my primary outlet, but also use WhatsApp for folks who are not on the FaceBook. My wife and I are well-travelled people, so certainly you will see photos of the trips we have taken recently or in the past (reminded by FB). In addition, I post images that I have taken as a photographer and digital art I have created. Finally, there are some photos of our hikes and socializing.

 

I ask myself, why I do that? Why indeed my fellow social media users, and that includes almost all of my friends and family members, do the same? Although individual motivations differ, here are some general observations. 

 

On the surface of it, we post because we want to inform the readers/observers what we have been up to. We hope that they would reciprocate and do the same. Our travel photos are educational, and informative for people who may want to do the same someday. Maybe the artistic photos delight some folks, just as they would by seeing a work of art. 

 

However, go a bit deeper and secondary (or is it primary?) motivation becomes apparent. We post because we want some praise in return. Whether these are comments on social media or things like “likes” on FB, this type of feedback pampers our ego, and not getting it deflates it.

 

This is not materialism but “experiencism” a term I had coined in my Blog Post of September 2018. Just as a materialistic person would brag about his/her house or car, we experiencistic folks like to brag about the experience we have gained, and what better way than posting pictures on social media? 

 

In German there is a term Schadenfreude, or happiness derived from someone else’s misfortune. This may be quite applicable here. By indicating what a great experience we have had, and you have not, we are getting schadenfreude. 

 

Once upon a time, I had proposed a test to determine your level of materialism by asking yourself what you really need vs what you acquire for the purpose of showing off. This test is: If you cannot show anyone what you have or talk about it, what will you possess? That is what you need, the rest is for showing off. 

 

A similar test for an experience acquirer would be: If you cannot talk about it or post pictures, what trip would you have undertaken? That is the travel you undertake to satisfy your inner desire. The rest, at least partially, are to show off and pamper your ego. 

So, what should one do prior to achieving an ego-free state? Some simple suggestions:

 

For the poster of photos: Post, but don’t expect that everyone will respond enthusiastically. Do not feel slighted if nobody does. Also, don’t post too many at the same time. Your recipients are already suffering from information overload.

 

For the watchers of photos: Please look at the postings, not all of them but those that are of interest to you. Respond to them; that will please the poster of photos. Even if you are envious, don’t let that prevent you from responding. Also, don’t respond with photos of your experience of similar nature. At least, not right away. Acknowledge, appreciate and then mention that you had done something similar. 

 

These are the lessons I have learned over the years of posting photos on FB. Hopefully, I am getting better. 

 

 

 

AI and creative images

 Artificial Intelligence (AI) is making quick inroads into photography and, specifically, in creative image making. As I am involved, as an amateur, in that field, I need to think about where this may be leading to. I welcome any assistance I may get from AI but do not want it to overpower my creativity. (I am sure those in the other creative fields will think similarly.

So, here are my thoughts. 

 

First, for the sake of convenience, I am dividing this type of creativity into four buckets:

 

1. Creative capturing of a photograph,

2. Creative post processing to enhances a photograph, 

3. Creative non-realistic image from photograph(s), and

4. Creative image purely from software.

 

Second, let me elaborate each one and insert my thinking of how AI could impact it.

 

1. Creative capturing of a photograph 

 

This is where one needs to find the right subject, compose it correctly, make sure the lighting is good and capture it. No post processing is required in expressing this type of creativity. The image stands by itself. 

 

AI can suggest subjects within the camera’s viewfinder.  Once approved by the user, it can then provide guidance through composition and lighting. This way, an average photographer can start making better images, both for keeping record (people, places), and for creative purposes.

 

This is my favorite bucket and a common compliment I have heard is that “I have an eye for photography.” Hopefully, I will continue to learn, through AI, and keep producing even more pleasing images.

 

2. Creative post processing to enhances a photograph

 

Although, sometimes I am happy to stop after just capturing the image, I often use tools such as Lightroom and Photoshop to post process the photograph I have taken. These are not easy software tools to master, and my camera club spends a good deal of time explaining what can be done using these, and other, similar packages. The resulting image is superior to the one captured. Distractions are removed, there is more contrast, and the image is better cropped, among other improvements.

 

This is where AI can provide a big help. As my cousin, who is an AI expert, points out the benefits of AI packages, such as ChatGPT for this type of creativity. Instead of learning the intricacies of Photoshop, just saying (or typing) “make this image darker” to will do the trick. This certainly looks quite attractive. Now of course, AI may have a different interpretation of what looks good compared to mine, but that is a learnable difference to overcome. 

 

If you enter your images thus created into a competition, there may be an issue. Depending on who is running the competition, and the category of competition, the use of AI may be restricted. Generally, the most open category is “Creative” where AI can be used without any issues, but that is not the case for the more restrictive categories, such as “Nature”.

 

3. Creative non-realistic image from photograph(s),

 

Now we are truly venturing into the creative field. What comes out does not have to represent reality but rather an artistic expression that stimulates the mind of an observer. The intent is not to record something but to create an artwork. 

 

This is the area I hope to master, and my tools are Lightroom to some extent, and Photoshop to a great extent. I can apply filters to radically change the photograph(s) I have taken and use layers to create a composite. I can, for example, insert an image of a polar bear in an unlikely situation, or use a distort filter to create an abstract image. I can radically alter color and saturation so that the image is a work of art (at least in my mind) and not a realistic representation anymore. I imagine and then I strive to produce.

 

The way in which AI can provides assistance in this area  is to make suggestions on how abstract images can be created from a photograph I have taken, or how could different photos from my library can be combined to develop likable composites. 

 

4. Creative image purely from software

 

AI makes it possible to create an image, say of a spaceship on an alien plant, purely from prompts given by the creator. No photographs are required. However, now we are invading the space that an artist with a brush and paint occupies, not a traditional photographer. However, AI can also be asked to create a photorealistic image of a scene, based purely on prompts, such as “create a picture of a lake in the mountains”. 

 

Now, I am not involved with this type of creativity, but I admire the imagination of creators and ability of AI software to produce some fabulous images. This is clearly an area where AI will make a huge impact because its very existence depends on it. Someday, I can see myself becoming good at creating images this way. 

 

My fear has always been that AI will replace me and my creativity will drop down to just writing the appropriate prompts.  Now I feel that AI will help me get better, and in some ways give me opportunities in areas that did not exist in the past. I can thus spend more time in imagining and less time producing.

 

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Experiences, not number of countries

 Recently, someone wrote on FB that she is trying to get to 130 countries in ten years. An admirable goal, but one that is perhaps it is not the right one to set. Here are some reasons, based on my experience (and I have travelled a lot):

1. Some of the countries you need to visit to get to such a high number may not be interesting to visit. 

 

In my youth, I had set up a similar goal. There is, in fact, Traveler’s Century Club, an organization which helps you track the countries you visit and when you reach 100, you get some sort of certificate. Some of the “countries” they identify are territories, and so this goal can be achieved more quickly than you expect. I have been to 66 countries but 92 territories. 

 

I gave up on getting to 100 (although I am close), because the continent rich in remaining countries is Africa and I am not too keen to go through many countries in that continent, besides the five I have been to. It is a personal choice, I know.

 

2. Some countries may deserve more than one trip.

 

It is hard to go to one place in a country like India, US, or Italy and say that you have seen these countries. They have such a variety in terms of experiences you can gain, that multiple visits are required to enjoy them, even though your country count will not go up. 

 

3. There are so many experiences in countries where you live.

 

We live in United States and it is a country full of variations; in terms of geography, people, history and weather. I can imagine spending all my time in this one country and not get all the experiences it offers. I am sure a similar claim can be made by people living in many other countries.

 

4. Some countries are dangerous to visit.

 

Yes! I had to curtail my list of fascinating places to visit because of all the political turmoil going on. This list includes Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Israel, Lebanon, and so on. I hope that someday peace will prevail and I am able to get to these places, however, I am not holding my breath. 

 

5. Some countries may provide similar experience to the ones you already had.

 

Once you have been to many places, this becomes an important factor. We have not been to New Zealand, because we believe that scenery there is similar to that in Patagonia, which we have been to.  Similarly, the scenery in countries such as Kyrgyzstan seems so similar to what we have seen in our own Utah or Arizona. Some of the pacific island countries cannot be much different than Hawaii. I agree that the cultural aspects are different in these places than those we have been to, but the scenery is one major reason to visit.  

 

So, I suggest not setting a travel goal based on the number of countries you visit. Base it on the experience you will likely get. 

Serenity

 Through my previous Posts, you might be familiar with my six-cell matrix for leading a well-balanced retired life. 

 

(See : https://medium.com/@aboghani/the-next-phase-of-retired-life-3e9bb2a799fa or https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/5874035607402295489/957915496350662353 )

 

I recommended performing activities in each of the six cells on a regular basis, as I try to do, in order to achieve a meaningful retired life. 

 

I have now added one more box, based on my experience and that of others I have observed. The new matrix is as follows:

The new box, Serenity activities, contains what you do, or should do to achieve serenity, as the name suggests. This could include, for example, meditation, spiritual or religious activities, depending on your preferences. One of the objectives of these activities is to achieve inner calmness and acceptance of the way things are. These are important at any phase of life but when you are retired, they become even more acute. You ask yourself what is the purpose of life; and fret about things that are so insignificant that they should not matter. This is when meditation or religious activities become important. As they say, “grant me courage to change things I can, serenity to accept what I cannot and wisdom to know the difference”. Without serenity, this does not work.

 

Now, there are activities such as enjoying natural surrounding or taking a walk, that may provide serenity. In other words, the activities in each cell can serve multiple purposes. That is true for any of the cells, for example, a socializing activity may be a right brain activity as well.

 

When I hear the term ‘time-pass’ activity, I cringe a little bit. During many years that I have retired there has never been a day when I had to do something just to pass time. I do not know what the future will bring; and when my ability to walk, travel or hike declines. 

 

At the moment, I feel reasonably confident that I will find a meaningful activity to pursue even then.  

AI and human beings

 One of the organizations I belong to in Los Angeles provides very low-cost consulting (among other things) to non-profits in this area. They do so by recruiting and training mostly retired executives who are able to provide consulting or coaching at no cost. 

They recently put together a seminar on how we can use AI in our work. This three-hour training included a brief description of what AI is all about, and how to prompt Chatbots to come out with useful information, such as questionnaires to be used or job descriptions for various positions in the organization. In other words, the type of stuff we would need to do for the assignments. 

 

One question I asked to the staff involved in teaching was what would be the role of us human beings in such a consulting world? There were no clear answers. So, I decided to continue my quest. 

 

Interestingly, the same evening, while going for my walk, I heard a very informative Podcast on the subject. This is called “Asking for a friend…which jobs are safe from AI” on Planet Money. Of the two people they used as subjects, one is deciding to study for law but wondering if the expense he goes through will be recovered once he gets his degree but find himself outcompeted by AI. The other is a designer who is wondering if she should take up jobs like welding or plumbing which are likely to survive the AI onslaught. 

 

To answer these questions, the Podcast discussed work done by Daniel Rock, an AI researcher, who came out with what would be the Exposure to AI for some one thousand jobs. He did that by identifying tasks done in each job and then assigning an exposure index. If AI can do the task in half the time, it got score E1, if it cannot, the score would be E0, and for an in between situation, the task will get E2. This was done for some 20,000 tasks involved with the 1000 jobs. 

 

At the bottom (very little chance of AI intrusion) are jobs such as wellhead thumper operator, metal casters, athletes, dancers and coaches. At the highest level are knowledge workers and public relations jobs. Dan cautions that even at the highest levels, AI will not replace the jobs but will change them drastically. AI could become a general-purpose technology, like electricity and it will make vast changes in the economy. His list is indicative but not definitive in terms of jobs that will disappear. 

 

However, for the jobs that are highly exposed, it will be good and if you could productively use AI. In the end, if demand is elastic, such increase in productivity would be great. If it is inelastic, there will be job losses. 

 

Roberto Rigobon at MIT has approached the problem from a different angle: He asks: “What are Humans good for?” He then looked at each task in a job and scored them along for the following five parameters that require a human being.

 

Empathy (E), Presence (P), Opinion (O), Creativity (C), and Hope (H). Higher the EPOCH score is, more likely it is that the humans are needed. 

 

At the top of the list are jobs like Emergency Management Director, IT Project Manager, and such. Even Construction Workers scored high on Empathy. The clerical jobs, insurance appraisers, tax preparers, and such scored less.

 

In the end, the question is whether AI will automate or augment a job. If a job requires tasks that are connected, AI will augment the job even if some tasks are exposed as AI replacement. For example, AI can prepare the slides but a human is needed to deliver a lecture. There. AI augments but does not replace a human being. 

 

So, for the two people who were asking questions about AI, the response for the person who is deciding to go to the law school: Do join the school and become a lawyer. Get good at delivering a judgement and not performing clerical tasks. Learn how to think and imagine. Then you won’t be replaced. 

 

To the designer thinking about learning how to be a plumber: What if everyone decides to do that? There will be too many plumbers and the wages will drop. 

 

In the end, there is not list of jobs that are immune to AI encroachment. We are in for a weird ride, according to this Podcast. 

Automated transportation

One of the areas I worked on during my professional career was automation of transportation systems. In the 80s, the possibilities of introducing electronics in cars to provide situation awareness and communication were increasing. Cell phones were making it possible for connecting car drivers to the rest of the world. The Global Positioning Satellite System (GPS) developed by the military was finally available for civilian use. That allowed cars to know their locations with respect to an electronic map. Pretty soon, routing algorithms were introduced to take one from point A to point B. Heady times.

 

We predicted that the days of self-driving cars were just around the corner. Now, finally, many decades later that is becoming true. A ride in a self-driving car such as Waymo demonstrates that you don’t need a driver to navigate through streets of a city, even as complex as Los Angeles. If this technology gets widely used, the impact on individual transportation will be tremendous. 

 

One can imagine a world where private ownership of cars become history. There will be no need for parking lots and the efficiency of the overall transportation system would increase a great deal. There will be no need to have a vehicle sitting in your driveway or a parking lot for most of the day if a ride is available anytime from anywhere.

 

I mentioned this in an earlier Blog Post ((Confluence of tipping points, 1 August 2023). Although the availability of vehicles like Waymo will increase people’s confidence in self-driving cars, there will be still some barriers that will need to be overcome. 

 

One barrier is the prestige that some people assign to owning expensive cars. Cars have been status symbols for a long time. There will be fewer reasons to own a prestigious vehicle if it is not used to make people take notice and envy your wealth. Unlike a house (another way of making people jealous), a car goes everywhere, and can be seen by others. People seeing you alighting from an automated Waymo just does not create the same impact. 

 

Another argument people use for having your own car is that of flexibility. --- you to drive away at any time. This argument not sound right. Even Ubers are available within five minutes or so. If the cost differential between ownership and cost of rides is substantial, as it is likely to be, a few minutes delay will be acceptable by most people.

 

A more complicated situation arises when you want to go on a road trip. You can always rent a Waymo to take you wherever you want. However, that would mean a longer-term rental than a few minutes for within city travel. Depending on pricing, there may end up having rental non-self-driving cars available, for affordable price and perhaps fewer features. 

 

Some folks will tell you that these self-driving cars are dangerous and cite an incidence that demonstrates their fear. They neglect to tell you that human driven cars are even more dangerous. Also, these are just the early days of driverless cars. They will improve as the experience base expands and AI make a big difference. 

 

There is also fear that once self-driving cars become the norm, people will forget how to drive. This is similar to what is already happening thanks to technologies such as Google Translate and auto correction. People will slowly stop learning other languages or spell correctly. A bigger storm, called AI, is about to make humans taking pictures, writing stories, diagnose ailments, or compose music a thing of the past. Ability to drive a car will join the list. If you still insist on keeping your ability to drive intact, maybe there will be rental cars available, just as they would be for people undertaking road trips.

 

Surely, auto manufacturers and parking lot owners might resist. However, if their customers display their preference for not owning their own cars, they may eventually capitulate.

 

Like cars becoming automated, an equally game changing event would be trucks becoming driverless. Just imagine tucks thundering by, safely and efficiently, but having no drivers. This is already happening and a company called Kodiak has self-driving trucks on the road. The technology is about the same as driverless cars. When this becomes more popular, the impact would be felt most acutely by the truck drivers. The trucking companies will reduce their operating costs but the human impact would be severe at least in the short term.

 

There will be a liability issue and also that of public perception. A driverless truck having a major collision will attract news media and litigators. It is only after some time that the experience base will be sufficiently significant to quieten things down. 

 

One final transportation system that can be more fully automated is airplanes. Even now, autopilot systems are so well developed, the pilots do not have to do much, especially during the cruising phase of a flight. I agree that during take-off and landing, pilots are required but I cannot imagine that the same situation will apply in the future. 

 

Pilots are required primarily to provide comfort to the passenger. It will be many years before passengers accept that flying in a pilotless airplane is completely safe. They would point out, once again, to a situation where a pilotless airplane crashed, and forget that airplanes with pilots crash as well, many times because of pilot errors. Sometimes even because of a suicidal pilot flying the airplane. It is hard to imagine a suicidal autopilot. 

 

I think that for the for seeable future, there will be at least one pilot in the cabin, just to provide comfort factor. 

 

So, to summarize, driverless cars are already here. They will become an increasing presence in the coming future. Also around are self-driving trucks and, eventually, pilotless airplanes.

  

Proto

 One of my favorite subjects is the migration of homo sapiens from their ancestral home to the rest of the world. It is a remarkable story, and as I understand it, the number that left Africa some 60,000 years ago was small, and yet almost everyone on earth can claim lineage to that group. 

 

Equally fascinating is the story of languages spoken by human beings. A recent book I finished reading, Proto: How one ancient language went global, by Laura Spinney, satisfied my curiosity about many aspects of what most of us speak. This is a summary of that fascinating book. 

 

The speakers of Proto-Indo-European, the mother (or is it father) of almost all the languages spoken by half of humanity, were only a few dozen to begin with. They lived between Europe and Asia in the region of the Black Sea. However, their language exploded out of Black Sea cradle, spreading east and west, fragmenting as it went. Within a thousand years, its offspring could be heard from Ireland to India. It is easily the most important event of the last five thousand years. 

 

It took another three and half thousand years and the invention of ocean-going ship, but after 1492, some of these languages implanted themselves in the new world and expanded again. 

Plenty of Indo-European languages have lived and died, but over 400 are still spoken today.

 

Eight billion humans speak around seven thousand languages that fall into one hundred and forty families. Most of us, however, speak languages that belong to just five of them: Indo-European, Sino-Tibetan, Niger-Congo, Afro-Asiatic, and Austronesian. Of these, the two behemoths are the first two. Every second person on earth speaks the languages in the first family, and Mandarin (which has more native speakers than English) being the major Sino-Tibetan language. 

 

1n 1786, a British judge, Sir William Jones, asserted that Sanskrit, Latin and Greek had sprung from some common source, which perhaps no longer exists. He added that Germanic, Celtic, and Iranian might have sprung from the same source. Since my mother tongue, Gujarati, is an offspring of Sanskrit, this is of a great deal of importance to me. 

 

There are twelve main branches of the Indo-European Language: Anatolian, Tocharian, Greek, Armenian, Albanian, Italic, Celtic, Germanic, Slavic, Baltic, Indic, and Iranic. Anatolian, a dead language, was spoken on the Turkish peninsula, and Tocharian, another dead language, was spoken in the Silk Road in North-west China. The Dravidian languages of South India, as well as Uralic languages (Finnish, Estonian, Hungarian), and Basque, do not belong to the Indo-European family. 

 

The Indo-European Languages (source: Proto, by Laura Spinney)

 

 

Genetics has determined the scale and in some case speed of migrations that archeologists had only observed in freeze frames. They have confirmed beyond reasonable doubt the huge role that migration has played in the story of humanity and its languages. 

 

As we speak, we have multiple ways in which we can peer back at how human beings spread. Three most important ones are: Genetics, archeology, and linguists. However, according to Laura, they don’t speak the same language (no pun intended). Archeologists think in terms of cultures, recurring patterns of objects that define group’s identity in some way. Cultures rise and fall, albeit with dilutions and concentrations, so geneticists have a different concept of identity. Languages change through both descent and contact, but they are less intimately tied up with who we are. 

 

Fewer than hundred people may have spoken the dialect that gave rise to all extant Indo-European languages. They are called Yamnaya. Scientists even claim that the oldest sites, from where the oldest Yamnaya genomes have come from, are located between the lower reaches of the river Dnieper and Don, in the east of Ukraine. Yamnaya were typically brown haired and brown eyed, with a complexion between fair and dark. They were very tall, some six feet in case of men. 

 

Archeologists are fairly certain that the Yamnaya hunted horses but are divided over whether they rode them---and whether this is how the early Indo-European languages expanded so far, so fast. 

 

Why do experts feel that Yamnaya spoke Proto-Indo-European? It is because the language mirror’s speaker’s world. From the broken reflection of that world that the linguists have pieced together, archeologists and geneticists can tell which prehistoric people were most likely to inhabit it. 

 

Proto-Indo-European has been reconstructed based on a comparison of its offspring, an exercise that has revealed the Indo-European sound laws—those shifts in pronunciations that transformed the mother tongue into its daughters. No other proto language has received so much scholarly attention. 

 

From such analysis, the scholars believe that the speakers of Proto-Indo-European knew wheeled transportation. In 3500 BCE, according to archeologists, only the steppe dwellers who herded horses, cattle and sheep lived to the west of the Urals. Most European men alive today, and millions of their counterparts in Central and South Asia, carry Y chromosomes that came from the steppe. Recent DNA analysis shows that a group of Yamnaya had travelled the length of the Eurasian steppes in a few decades, perhaps less. 

 

When Yamnaya arrived in Hungary, the population of Europe was estimated to be seven million. The migrants might have numbered in the tens of thousands, yet within a thousand years, languages descended from theirs were spoken across the continent. The Indo-Europeans may simply have been good at having children and keeping them alive. If they kept it up over generations, steppe ancestry would have spread through the population, and Indo-European languages with it. 

 

The people in the region first became bilingual. Then they stopped speaking the old language to their children. The parents calculated that it would be better if the next generation was fluent in the language of power and wealth, or teenagers appraising the world decided this for themselves. 

 

There is another interesting fact described in the book, particularly for those born in northern India where Sanskrit (the mother of almost all north Indian languages) was spoken at one time. 

 

In the middle of the Russian steppe, at a settlement called Sintashta, the archeologists wondered if they were looking at the origin of Ashvamedha, a ritual described in the ancient Indian texts. If so, there could be links with the Indo-Iranian branch of the Indo-European language family. This branch is the largest in terms of both the number of speakers and the geographical range. If people of Sintashta performed rituals that their descendants carried to India and Iran then the Aryans (the name by which ancient Indians and Iranians identified themselves) must have crosse the steppe. Thirty years on, the linguists and geneticists have added their contribution to those of the archeologists, but the Aryan chapter of the Indo-European story remains the most politicized and contentious, as mentioned before.

 

The Rig Veda, the oldest Indic text, was written in the foothills of the Hindu Kush in Punjab region that straddles between India and Pakistan. Most likely it was written between 1500 and 1200 BCE. By 1600 BCE, steppe ancestry was in Pakistan’s Swat valley and from there it diffused through the entire subcontinent. This assertion remains contentious as mentioned above. Some people in India assert that the idea of Sanskrit coming from outside of India is not correct. 

 

So, there are two possibilities, either Sanskrit came to India from outside or India is the homeland of the entire family. Proponents of this latter theory have made very little effort to explain how the other Indo-European languages ended up where they did. 

 

The Indo-European speaking Aryans were not the first people to arrive in India. The archeologists have long discovered the Indus Valley Civilization, populated by the Harrapans. They, however, had no genetic connection to the steppe; for eons they had been indigenous to the subcontinent. 

 

Also, the Harrapans most likely invented agriculture independently of the development in the Near East. So, farmers and farming did not come with the speakers of the Indo-European language. Some of the mysteries can be solved if someone is able to decipher the Harrapan script. That has not been the case. It is believed that the Harrapan civilization died slowly as the monsoon failed and not due to any invasion from the Aryans. 

 

Many of the offspring of the first Indo-European language died. The ones that survived proved adaptable in their turn. They did not stay the same, nor did their languages. That was the secret of their success. 

 

The human compulsion to communication is overwhelming. It was there even before sapiens. Some argue that without language there will be no reasoning, others that there is no consciousness. People change language just by using them. Accumulation of conscious and unconscious changes causes language to split. 

 

Languages do erode. Of the roughly seven thousand languages that are spoken in the world today, nearly half are considered endangered. Keeping endangered languages alive seems to be a good thing. However, the solution isn’t simply to put ever more resources into teaching. First, they have to work out why people are abandoning the languages, then they have to address the inequalities that are causing them to do so. Language is a tool, and it lives as long as it is useful in opening doors for its speakers and improving their lives. 

 

People are moving around the Black Sea today for the same reasons they did six thousand years ago: trade, war, and climate change. The climate crisis is real and its effects are already being felt. Whatever way the crisis unfolds, the world is unlikely to stay the same, linguistically speaking. The Indo-European languages came to dominate mainly as a result of the small, temporary movement of people over time---the kind of displacements that would happen as the climate change intensifies. 

 

The new tools of archeology and genetics have opened our eyes to our past. Migration has been constant, ‘indigenous’ is relative. Ten thousand years of human displacement have shrunk the genetic distance between populations to the point where ethnic divisions are losing meaning. The desire to belong is as strong as ever, and it is harder to see the differences between ‘them and ‘us. Linguistic and cultural boundaries are being guarded more jealously. Language is becoming a battleground in the identity wars, and preserving our linguistic ‘purity’ is used as justification by those who want to raise walls. Unfortunately for them, the most successful language the world ever knew was a hybrid trafficked by migrants. 

 

It changed as it went, and when it stopped changing, it died. 

The future of space exploration

 I grew up just when space exploration was about to start. The Soviet Union sent the first satellite in the orbit around 1957, when I was still a young boy. The space race between the Soviets and the Americans then began in full earnest. First dog in space, first human, first woman, first multiple people, first space-walk, and so on. The human exploration of space reached its height with the Moon landings, some 50 years ago. 

During the last 50 years, we have had fantastic unmanned probes, the latest being the one heading to Europa to check out if conditions exist for life developing there. However, it feels like human space exploration has slowed down. Yes, we had Space Shuttle and the International Space Station, but the excitement of forming a colony on Moon or exploring planets continues to be Elusive. 

 

That may be changing. Finally, I feel that human space exploration is going to restart again. One recent course on Great Courses Plus provided me with some basis for feeling optimistic. 

 

The teacher of this twelve-part course is an American woman, Ariel Ekblaw, who founded the Space Exploration Initiative at MIT’s Media Lab in 2016. Now, she is also CEO and co-founder of a space habitat-oriented firm called Aurelia Institute.

 

She starts the course by responding to the basic question---why do we want to go to space anyway? She mentions several reasons.

 

·      Curiosity. This is along the line of the answer that a British Mountaineer gave to someone who asked him why he wanted to climb Mt Everest? “Because it is there,” was his short answer.

·      Preserve civilization. This has become even more important in the age of Climate Change. Even if Earth remains habitable, it is wise to develop alternatives—as science fiction has long postulated.

·      Expand circle of awareness. This is like going up a hill to get a sense of perspective on where you are. Perhaps an unmanned probe can do that as well, but nothing beats physically being up there. 

·      Technology applicability to earth. This argument was often used by NASA to justify billions of dollars it was spending. It still is one of the reasons why we explore space, but not the primary one.

 

In general, space exploration has been done by the government agencies, like NASA and its counterparts in the world, and by the military. Lately, commercial entities have joined this elite group. Ariel cites several commercial firms in that category:

 

·      Blue Origin (space station, landing system)

·      Space X (super heavy rockets, landing system)

·      Virgin Galactic

·      Axiom Space (space station)

·      Voyager Space

·      United Launch Alliance

·      Zero G

 

Most of us are familiar with the first three, founded by billionaires.  Space X has been particularly active, having taken astronauts to and from the space station, and launching hundreds of satellites in the near-earth orbit to create and support an international communication system called Starlink. Elon Musk, the founder, has expressed a vision for his firm playing a key role in human exploration of Mars. 

 

The advantage of having commercial firms enter space exploration is that it allows meeting the economic challenges posed by this endeavor. Now, through public-private partnerships, commercial capital can be tapped. Aided by government, industry can now take much more responsibility and the pace can become faster. This is especially important as we move beyond space exploration. 

 

There will indeed be a need to public sector money in this public-private partnership. For those who object to spending tax-payers’ money on these endeavors, I would suggest to take a look at how we are wasting money in the Defense Department. In the age of drones becoming a major fighting force, why are we spending money on expensive hardware designed for fighting the war of the past? Also, if a massive cyberattack can bring a country to its knees, what good is it to spend money on military hardware? A small fraction of this waste can easily fund any public sector involvement in space exploration, and take humanity to the next level.

 

What is beyond space exploration? Ariel lists four futures:

 

1. Exploration (where we are right now)

2. Experience

3. Exploitation

4. Expansion

 

Experience refers to a larger segment of people getting to explore what going to space or living there feels like. Currently, very few, mostly the billionaires and their family/friends, have had a chance to experience space, and that too mostly flights up and down. This has caused some concern about the billionaires taking a ride while there are lots of starving children. Fair, but the problem of starving children won’t be solved by a few people not spending their own money on what to many people looks like a waste. I believe that this is their return for making investments, and we want to have them invest as we shift to a commercial phase of space exploration.

Currently, only a select few civilians have experienced orbital flights.  However, as the cost of sending someone up there reduces (e.g., through reusable rockets) and large orbiting structures are built to rotate around the earth, additional folks will experience what travelling to space feels like. There is also, obviously, a chance for the commercial firms to make some money and get return on their investments.

 

Additional ways in which investment can provide a pay-off is when we start exploiting space. One such prospect is to mine for water on the moon. It does exist, especially in the lunar polar regions. Water thus mined will serve not only the lunar colony, when it comes into existence, but also make space travel to Mars more affordable. Acting as the way station, a lunar fill-up station will avoid bringing water from earth, which is expensive, given the gravity of our planet. It is not only water but also its constituents, Oxygen and Hydrogen, that will play key roles in space travel. Oxygen is necessary to support life, and Hydrogen can be used as fuel. 

 

Mars will be the second step (after moon) for the last phase of future space travel: Expansion. Maybe at some time point (hundred years from now?), one can envision some humans living elsewhere in our solar system. At the moment it is a science fiction territory, but so were smart phones and Internet, just a few years back. 

 

In the course on the Future of Space Exploration, Ariel describes what is being done on many technological fronts that need to be addressed as we continue of journey. For example, she talks about:

 

·      Going back to the moon: Economic and scientific potential of long-term lunar bases

·      Going to Mars: Risks involved in the mission, building structures on Mars.

·      Future habitable villages orbiting earth: Next generation of structures including those that are able to assemble themselves.

·      Next generation space suit design: Those that provide radiation protection, as well as life support systems.

·      Food in space: Beyond providing basic nutrition, food that is flavorful and supports mental well-being and social bonding.

·      Thriving in space (not just surviving): how to fight disorientation, vertigo, and nausea caused by weightlessness. 

·      Space tourism: Orbiting resorts offering sports, cuisines and entertainment that are unique to zero g. 

·      Commercial ways to benefit to life on earth: “Off worlding” opportunities to mine the moon and asteroids, generate power in space and develop material and biotechnologies possible only in microgravity.

·      Finding life in the universe: Determine habitability and signs of life on promising planets (e.g., Mars), moons of planets (e.g., Europa) and thousands of exoplanets discovered so far. 

·      Ethical problems of space: Not taking our bad habits with us, or disturbing the pristine nature of space objects we explore. 

 

Given what Ariel says (and she is from my alma mater…MIT), I feel confident that space exploration is about to take off (pun intended), and get into space experience, space exploitation, and in the future, human expansion in space.

 

It is too late for me, but my grandchildren, or even their grandchildren will become explorers themselves and will have no hesitation taking a vacation on the Moon.