‘The Black Swan’ is an interesting book written by Nassim Taleb. If you wade through the pages of somewhat pompous writing, you would find several good insights. One of them goes like this---In our normal life we only see white swans and you may be tempted to assume that all swans are white. However, this may not be the case. A black swan may exist and be seen by some ornithologist someday. So, the word ‘certainty’ can be applied only to indicate the presence of black swan, if one is seen. One can not be certain that no such swans exist if only white swans are seen.
There is an asymmetry here that applies to many situations.
Take, for example, the question of the existence of God. For many of us, we have not seen evidence that would indicate his existence*. So, we conclude that he does not exist. However, if the above logic is used, the absence of evidence implies only that he may not exist, not that he does not exist. The only time we could be certain is when the opposite happens---an irrefutable proof is found.
So, by this argument, we can not be atheist and claim to be rational at the same time. The only rational position is that of an agnostic.
I am troubled by this. In our daily lives we, the doubters, are given more leeway.
Take for example the court of law. You are innocent until proven guilty. So, the absence of an irrefutable proof that you murdered someone is taken to indicate that you are innocent, not that you may be innocent. The onus is on the other side to prove your guilt.
Why can’t the same logic apply while discussing the existence of God?
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* The purpose of this post is not to question the faithful who are able to see the evidence of God in many events and things around us. It starts with the position held by many of us who do not see the evidence and argues for the validity of atheism as a rational position.
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I prefer "Extraordinary claims need extraordinary proof" as a better guideline. The BlackSwan strategy would lose most of the time - except when it comes to selling books. I too thought the book was very shallow. One idea repeated for over 300 pages with anecdotal evidence and conjectures.
ReplyDeleteTushar
Black Swan is also a film starring Natalie Portman, Vincent Cassel and Mila Kunis. Unfortunately or fortunately, it is not adapted from this book.
ReplyDeleteThis brings to light a fundamental flaw in our legal system. "Innocent until proven guilty" is at best a mediocre part of the legal system, because if the prosecution cannot prove the guilt (for lack of evidence or incompetence), the guilty can go free. That does not mean the the guilty party is really not guilty (we know such cases, don't we?). However, we humans have still not found a better method to replace "innocent until proven guilty" - so, we live with it because that is the best we can do, for now.
ReplyDeleteOn a related note, even our constitution is not absolute - has its faults - nor do all of the scriptures (all religions included). These are all imperfect (though important) tools at our disposal so we can make a final determination about right and wrong, belief and non-belief. In the end, our own individual conclusion (by using these tools)reigns supreme, and transcends all of these tools.
None of the religions are "Rational". If there was any rationality, we would not see blatant killings, murders and abuse of human rights. To me the religions were useful to give us guidance when there were no governments and legal systems to protect us. Now when we have constitutions and other legal system to protect, the religions should not play an important part in our social and legal systems. It should only play part in the area of spirituality. Like Forrest Church said, "Religion is our human repsonse to dual reality of being alive and having to die".
ReplyDeleteYou may say that this is bit odd as some of you know that I have been very active in our UU denomination as well as our local UU church. To me it is natural. This is the only place where I can fit. This is the only place where "reason and love unites".
Bo